Russia's Grain Blockade of Ukrainian Ports Threatens Global Food Security

Russia has extended its effective blockade of Ukraine's major Black Sea export ports, halting shipments of wheat, maize, and sunflower oil that together account for a significant share of global grain trade. Before the war, Ukraine supplied roughly 10 percent of global wheat exports and nearly half the world's sunflower oil. The blockade disrupts those flows at a moment when alternative suppliers — Australia, Canada, the US — are themselves managing weather-reduced harvests, leaving import-dependent nations in the Middle East, North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa with fewer and more expensive options.

The structural problem is that global food systems were designed for efficiency, not redundancy. The concentration of grain export capacity in a small number of Black Sea ports — mirroring supply chain vulnerabilities exposed in other sectors — means a single geopolitical action can cascade immediately into nutrition outcomes thousands of kilometres away. The World Food Programme has already flagged that countries like Egypt, Lebanon, and Sudan, which import upward of 50 percent of their wheat from Ukraine and Russia, face acute import bill increases that humanitarian budgets cannot absorb. The political tension is that the same actors whose military action caused the disruption are also positioned to end it.

Track whether the UN-brokered grain corridor agreement — which previously allowed limited shipments — can be renegotiated, and whether alternative overland routes through Poland and Romania can scale fast enough to prevent acute shortfalls this winter.